Navigating the Shifting Landscape of Business Dining in 2025: What the Latest Data Tells Us

When Dinova released the Spring 2025 State of Business Dining Report last month, the restaurant industry was navigating mixed signals—strong momentum at the end of 2024 had given way to a slower, more uncertain start to the new year. Since then, the economic picture has only grown more complicated.

Though not insulated from broader market pressures, business dining is increasingly showing signs of acting as a buffer against softening consumer traffic and spending—providing restaurants with a steadier, if still evolving, revenue stream.

Economic Volatility Clouds Consumer Outlook

In recent weeks, pressure on consumers has intensified. The University of Michigan’s April consumer sentiment survey dropped more than 10% month-over-month, marking its second-lowest reading since 1952. Although inflation appeared to ease briefly in February, new tariffs and persistent economic uncertainty are already influencing behavior. Case in point: a notable rise in frozen pizza sales—a trend reminiscent of the 2009 recession—suggests consumers are pulling back on dining out.

This volatility is reflected in broader restaurant performance: a dip in spending in February was followed by an increase in March for restaurants and other eating places, according to the Census Bureau. But consumer hesitation remains a headwind. Technomic’s recent downgrade of restaurant sales projections for 2025 signals a more cautious road ahead.

As Travel Tightens, Reaching Business Diners Requires a Smarter Approach

While many restaurants are seeing softening consumer traffic, business dining has, so far, shown greater stability. Dinova’s corporate cardholder data revealed 5.6% growth in business dining in 2024, with a modest but encouraging 3.6% increase in January 2025—outpacing both consumer dining and inflation. Seasonal patterns suggest that business dining spend could peak in Q2.

Still, business dining isn’t untouched by the broader economic pressures. Its close ties to corporate travel mean it’s influenced by shifting travel behaviors and budget constraints. According to a new Global Business Travel Association survey, only 31% of industry professionals remain optimistic about the travel outlook for 2025—down sharply from 67% in late 2024. Nearly one-third of global travel buyers anticipate a decline in travel volume this year, with spending cuts averaging 21%. 

As corporate budgets tighten, many companies are leaning on tools that guide employees toward preferred vendors, including restaurants, that help manage costs while continuing to support employee engagement and relationship building.

Key Takeaways for Restaurants

• While consumer sentiment remains fragile, business dining continues to show stability and can serve as a strategic buffer during uncertain times.
  
• With international tourism and foreign business travel expected to decline, targeting regional and domestic business diners like territory managers or account reps will become increasingly important.
  
• Tighter corporate budgets could lead companies to rely more on tools that direct employees to preferred vendors, including restaurants. Dinova’s Preferred Dining Program can position your restaurant as a go-to for business spend.
  
• Business dining is evolving but still more predictable, following seasonal patterns and recurring corporate needs. This makes it more resilient than general consumer dining during economic downturns.
  
• Catering remains a strong performer, especially for corporate clients. As inflation and import costs rise, group orders and catering can offer restaurants higher-margin revenue and help weather volatility.

Want more insights on navigating the evolving business dining landscape? Download our Spring 2025 State of Business Dining Report for deep dives on seasonality trends, business traveler personas and preferences, catering, and tips to help restaurants align with corporate expense policies.